Sunday, November 27, 2016

Only One Shopping Day Left Till Tomorrow!

Two weeks ago we reported 17 months of election coverage, political ads, and an unexpected presidential outcome shifted shopper attentions away from thoughts of holiday celebrations, sugarplums, and shopping lists. The result? Much like this year’s election. We reported more conservative holiday budgets and a delay in consumer decision-making regarding holiday shopping.

This year Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Sofa Sunday, Cyber Monday are all going to be really busy. This is Brand Keys’ 22nd annual national holiday shopping survey and, historically, this kind of shopper behavior hasn’t been typical of any Presidential election we’d ever seen or even recent-year shopping cycles.

Consumers indicated that they were planning to shop even later than previous years, pretty much starting with Black Friday. The 2016 election cycle resulted in consumers voting for only a 1.8% increase in holiday spend, or an average $900 total spend per household. According to 12,764 shoppers it’s more watch-and-wait this year than ever before.

Brand Keys utilizes a combination of traditional interviewing techniques and validated, psychological measures that correlate very highly with consumer behavior. That ensures the results are an accurate accounting of ”what people think (and what they’re gong to do), and not just what they say they think,” something the political pollsters and a lot of holiday shopping surveys missed this year.

Previously consumers had been holiday shopping earlier and earlier. Last year 84% of consumers reported shopping before Black Friday. This year only half that many consumers (41%) reported that they had shopped or intended to do so before Black Friday. That means 59% of shopping is going to start Black Friday, so retailers, start your engines, although a lot of that shopping is gong to be more online than brick-and mortar, which is exactly what happened.

Virtually all consumers interviewed (98%) indicted that they were buying online again this year – the default venue for browsing for gifts, promotions, price checking, and actual buying. While consumers indicated that they intended to spend only a little more than last year, they are seeking comfort, balance, and gratification in a stress-free period of time. So spend about the same and take your own time to find the perfect gifts, which is what they’re doing. And, as it turns out that’s a lot easier online. Just saying.

True, there were more shoppers shopping this past Black Friday and Small Business Saturday and Sofa Sunday, but the majority was shopping for bargains. NBC reported that a “staggering” number shopped online. And here’s a tip for next year: the biggest Black Friday deals were actually picked up online on Sofa Sunday. Here’s what consumers are buying:

Gift Cards                                        97%
Clothing and Accessories                80%                                                   
Electronics/Phones/Computer         50%                                       
Personal Care Products/Spa           45%   
Kitchen/Cookware                           42%   
Toys                                                 20%               
Jewelry                                            20%                                       
Food and Wine                                20%   
Sporting Goods                               12%   
Books                                              10%                           
Home Décor                                     2%                                        

Just as in holiday seasons past, value is paramount. Consumer expectations regarding outreach and convenience, particularly for mobile, are up again. Again, why there’s more shopping online. Just wait till Cyber Monday is over for those numbers!

Someone once said, “Here’s wishing your Black Friday injuries aren’t so severe that you can’t click a mouse on Cyber Monday.” According to our research, that doesn’t seem to have been a problem.

And this year in particular, it’s probably worth remembering that there’s always one shopping day left till tomorrow!


Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Trump Brand Triumphs: The President-Elect Effect


In the wake of changing demographics, shifting party coalitions and voter attitudes, and significant wins in key battleground states, Donald J. Trump defied all political polls to become the United States’ next president-elect. Not only did the win come with 276 electoral votes, the win also came with an enormously needed re-boost to the Trump brand.

A post-Election Day, overnight National study conducted by Brand Keys, the New York-based brand engagement and customer loyalty research consultancy revealed that in each of the seven (7) categories where Brand Keys has tracked the Trump brand – a brand whose added-value had been badly battered by campaign rhetoric and the release of a video tape that captured Mr. Trump making lewd comments about women – rebounded to levels close to or exceeding added-value measures seen in April of 2015, just prior to his announced presidential candidacy.

Whether you voted for him or not, Mr. Trump has been one of the most powerful brands we’ve ever tracked. You could add his name to anything from ties to buildings and the increased perceived value of the products fell into the 20% to 37% range. Which was very high, enviable by any category or brand standards, and what a brand is supposed to do. Now, we suppose, he literally qualifies as “the most powerful brand in the world.”

When Mr. Trump threw his hat into the presidential ring in June of 2015, some of the product and service categories Brand Keys tracked were positively affected; some were negatively affected. That didn't totally surprise or alarm us, though. In becoming a candidate Mr. Trump changed both the brand paradigm regarding consumer expectations and values surrounding the Trump brand and also blurred the traditional lines regarding where the “Trump brand” was expected to compete. These shifts changed how consumers perceived the Trump brand. And an oft-contentious campaign didn’t help foster consumer emotional engagement and brand loyalty levels. But the disclosure of a videotape capturing Mr. Trump making lewd comments about women seemed to have placed the Trump brand in real peril.

Brands ­– particularly Human Brands, people who are seen to be the living, breathing embodiments of those set of values they alone are able to so successfully, seamlessly, and profitably transfer to products and services – that are then so negatively and publically exposed the way the video did to Mr. Trump, don’t usually come back as strong as they used to be. Think about what happened to Martha Stewart or Tiger Woods. Their brands survived but they never came back as strong as they were before the brand imploded – after they went to jail or were forced to do a PGA-Adultery walk-of-shame, for example. Human Brands don’t generally get a second chance to breath real life back into their brands or rekindle the desire in the hearts and souls of consumers. Not at their former brand strength, added-value levels, at least. These shifts are incredibly strong.” But apparently winning a presidential election is the exception that tests the rule.

According to 1,203 registered voters in the 9 US Census regions, 100% of the categories where Brand Keys has tracked the Trump brand that had been negatively affected a month ago with the Access Hollywood tape disclosure, all rebounded to Post-Candidacy +added-value brand levels. Added-value related to the Trump brand – that is, how much more a product or service is seen to better meet consumer expectations and be seen to be worth more monetarily with the Trump brand – is back up significantly from a month ago in each of the seven categories where Brand Keys has historically tracked the Trump brand. In some categories, the added-value brand numbers are the highest Brand Keys has ever tracked for the brand.

CATEGORY
Trump Brand
(4/2015)
Post-Candidacy
(7/2016)
Access Hollywood Tape Release
(10/7/16)
Trump as President-Elect
(11/16)
TV/Entertainment:
37%
43%
30%
40%
Country/Golf Clubs:
35%
40%
34%
42%
Real Estate:
30%
30%
22%
43%
Dress Shirts:
30%
22%
18%
28%
Ties:
29%
23%
18%
24%
Suits:
25%
19%
15%
30%
Watches:
20%
11%
10%
13%

From a political perspective, with the White House won, the Senate race no longer a toss-up, and the House firmly within GOP hands, a brand that was once deemed toxic by many consumers – and totally mismeasured by most researchers and political polls – is now seen as not only a safe option, but an emotionally desirable option. Especially given the new set of values that the brand has created around itself: victory, self-confidence and determination, a sense of the visionary, and ultimately greatness. We’ll have to factor those into our next Presidential Model, which was the one that identified Mr. Trump’s suitability as a Presidential candidate back in June 2015!

The election occurred in contrast to predictions by the political polls and pundits, and we’ll leave it to them to predict the future when it comes to presidential politics. What we know for sure is that these brand engagement, added-value numbers correlate very highly with consumer behavior and consumer perceptions of added-value for consumers’ own sense of self and actual product/service price value. They certainly did in voting booths across America. One should remember that as regards the brand engagement measures, these are leading-indicators, which means that we’ll be seeing their effects six to nine months down the road, although we’d have to do some additional drill-down research to predict the product and political effects of those consumers/voters who feel disenfranchised.

All that said, as currently calculated, this version of the Trump Presidential-Elect Brand’s added-value also adds a lot of new meaning if you’re reserving the Presidential Suite at a Trump Hotel or scheduling a tee-time at a Trump Golf Course.

We think that in addition to being a Human Brand, given the election results it’s fair to call it ‘The Brand Commander-In-Chief’!”


Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Friday, November 04, 2016

The Ivanka Trump Brand


In the wake of the release of a video showing Donald Trump speaking about women in vulgar sexual terms, a study conducted by our New York-based brand engagement and customer loyalty research consultancy Brand Keys revealed that 100% of the categories where Brand Keys has tracked the Trump brand had been negatively affected. But in a follow-up survey regarding Ivanka Trump, we found that the damage to her brand was insignificant compared to that of her father’s.

In a national survey conducted among 950 Millennial female shoppers who spent at least $250 on a dress or shoes in the past 12 months, we found that 83% were positively disposed to Ivanka Trump’s line of clothing or shoes – despite her involvement in her father’s presidential campaign.

We always talk about the complexity of 21st century consumers (particularly Millennials) so right now it’s pretty apparent that consumers can separate the political from the paternal. And while there may actually be an “I Hate Trump” movement (beyond the political) the most recent study found more than half (51%) of them are still “extremely” or “very” willing to keep Ivanka Trump brand on their shopping lists. When asked, “In light of Ivanka Trump’s involvement with the Trump campaign for president, how likely would you be to consider buying her line of shoes or clothing?” responses were follows:

Extremely Likely         18%
Very Likely                 33%
Somewhat Likely         32%
Not Very Likely          11%
Not At All Likely           6%

While some groups have called for a boycott of all things Trump, Ivanka’s comments have been pretty balanced regarding the campaign overall, i.e., not crazy or racist. What’s more, she’s been extraordinarily articulate about issues and generally supportive of her father, something anyone – except the most rabid of Democrats – should have expected. And if you were expecting to see her wear a “I’m For Hillary” button, you’re crazier than her father!

Note well, that when the video surfaced on October 7th she was not among the many surrogates and apologists to rush to Mr. Trump’s defense. And while there have been large losses to the (Donald) Trump brand and its ability to bring added value to various products and services, Ivanka’s brand does not appear to have suffered the same fate as her father’s. Perhaps consumers are thinking in terms of a paraphrased quote from Deuteronomy 24:16, “The father’s (brand) shall not be put to death for the children, neither shall the children’s (brand) be put to death for the fathers; every man’s (brand) shall be put to death for his own sin.”

Brand Keys has been tracking the (Donald) Trump brand for more than 20 years. At one point, Mr. Trump was the most powerful ‘Human Brand’ we had ever encountered. That included people like Martha Stewart and Tiger Woods and Oprah Winfrey. But recent revelations, and his ongoing political rhetoric, have badly damaged his brand, and history proves that when a brand has been damaged this badly, it generally doesn’t come back. Or in Biblical terms, it looks like unless Mr. Trump actually wins the election, consumers are going to put his brand to death.


Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

2016 Loyalty Leaders: Digital Delights


More than a third (35%) of the 2016 Brand Keys Loyalty Leaders are represented by digital technology, social networking brands, or brands that facilitate digital tech or social networking. That was one of the key findings in the 20th annual Loyalty Leaders survey. And while digital brands not only represent the lion’s share of this year’s list, they also command 80% of the top 20 loyalty leaders spots as well.

Loyalty Is a Gift and a Curse
Consumers haven’t entirely deserted traditional brands. The largest loyalty shifts this year have been in more traditional areas like apparel retail and athletic footwear, which for brands turns out to be both a gift and a curse.

Gift-wise loyalty is a leading-indicator of positive consumer behavior toward brands. Oh, and loyal consumers are six times more likely to behave better toward that brand.

The “Curse” aspect means it’s getting more difficult for non-digital brands to create the kind of emotional engagement consumers desire – for connection and distinction, tailored to ever-increasing consumer expectations regarding customization of products, services, and experiences. This environment forces brands to work harder to create emotional engagement. Want to know what consumers are going to do? Measure loyalty and emotional engagement.

2016 Top 20 Brand Keys Loyalty Leaders:
(Numbers in parentheses indicate last year’s brand ranking)
  1. Google: search engines (#6)
  2. Amazon: online retail (#8)
  3. Apple: tablets (#4)
  4. Netflix: video streaming (#1)
  5. Facebook: social networking (#5)
  6. Apple: Smartphones (#3)
  7. Amazon: tablets (#2)
  8. YouTube: social networking (#7)
  9. Amazon: video streaming (#10)
  10. WhatsApp: instant messaging (#9)
  11. iTunes: video streaming (#13)
  12. PayPal: online payments (#18)
  13. Dunkin’ Donuts: coffee (#17)
  14. Samsung: smartphones (#11)
  15. Nike: athletic footwear (#31)
  16. Ford: automotive (#22)
  17. Uber: app-based rideshare (#21)
  18. Starbucks: coffee (#40)
  19. LinkedIn: social networking (#16)
  20. Zappos: online retail (#12)
Loyalty’s Rule of Six
The kind of loyalty generated by leader brands means consumers are six times more likely to use the brand’s products and services in other categories too, which makes it harder for others to break into the top 100, let alone the top 20. This year Brand Keys examined 635 brands in 72 categories. To compound the challenge of rising to, say, the top 20, a number of brands ended up bein represented in multiple categories, like Amazon (which appears in the top 20 in three categories: Online Retail, Tablets, and Video Streaming). Google, which moved up five spots to rank #1 this year and was represented in both Search and Online Payments and Apple, which was rated highly in the Tablets, Smartphones, and Video Streaming categories.

Category Loyalty Leaders. Digital and. . .
Digital technology and social networking brands had the most Loyalty Leader brands, and represented 35% of the 2016 list. Other categories represented by Loyalty Leader brands included:

Retail: 17%
Beverages: 9%
Automotive: 8%
Cosmetics: 8%
Financial: 6%
Restaurants: 6%
Travel: 4%

Nine New Brands Replace Nine Old Brands
Nine of the top 100 Brand Keys Loyalty Leaders are new:  4 digital: Airbnb (#52), Line (#72), theSkimm (#76) and BuzzFeed (#95), with the remaining 5 including: Häagen-Dazs (#85), Jack Daniels (#92), Burt’s Bees (#96), Lowe’s (#99), and Vanguard (#100).

Brands that slipped from the top 100 included all hotel brands that had made last year’s list: Ritz-Carlton, W Hotels, Hyatt, and Hilton, a partial explanation of Airbnb’s spectacular first showing. Other brands that fell from this year’s top 100 include Neutrogena, Revlon, Macy’s, FIFA, and HTC Smartphones.

2016’s Biggest Loyalty Winners
Loyalty and emotional engagement are leading-indicators of consumer behavior toward a brand. That equation looks like this:

Loyalty + Emotional Engagement = Positive Consumer Behavior = $$$$

Axiomatically, the better consumers behave toward a brand, the better the brand does in the marketplace, which ultimately shows up on brands’ bottom lines. The 7 brands (including ties) that showed the greatest loyalty leadership gains were:

Starbuck’s (+22 to #18)
Ralph Lauren (+19 to #24)
Nike (+16 to #15)
LG (+15 to #31)
Domino’s (+15 to #43)
HBO GO (+15 to #63)
Under Armour (+13 to #28)

The Biggest Loyalty Losers
The 5 brands with the greatest loyalty erosion included:

Chipotle (-45 to #68)
Estee Lauder (-34 to #87)
eBay (-26 to #64)
Clinique (-21 to #97)
GAP (-20 to #93)

The bottom line? No matter the category, brands that understand that emotional connections serve as surrogates for added value, have succeeded.  And brands that have made loyalty and emotional engagement a strategic priority always appear high on the Loyalty Leaders List, and always appear at the top of consumers’ shopping lists.

Methodology
Brand Keys Loyalty Leaders analysis was conducted in September 2016 and includes assessments from 42,792 consumers, 18 to 65 years of age, from the nine US Census Regions, who self-selected the categories in which they are consumers and the brands for which they are customers. Seventy-five percent (75%) were interviewed by phone, 20% via face-to-face interviews (to account for cell phone-only consumers), and remaining consumers assessed categories and brands online. The 2016 Loyalty Leader assessments examined 72 categories and 635 brands.

Unlike economic use models, which rely heavily on historical data and profitability conjecture, the Brand Keys Loyalty and Engagement Model and rankings are 100% consumer-driven, and are predictive, leading-indicators of brand and corporate profitability. The good news is that brand loyalty is understandable. The better news is, it can be quantified and predicted. And, today, knowing what’s coming down the road from a category and competitive perspective is an extraordinarily powerful advantage that brands shouldn’t really pass up.”

The complete top-100 2016 Loyalty Leaders List, is available here.


Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.