Sailing Expectations

With the official start of summer less than a month away, consumers are planning for their vacations, and expectations are high. It’s their vacations after all. Some will go to the beach. Others to the mountains. And others to exotic cities far, as Thomas Hardy would have characterized it, from the maddening crowds. And then there’s the ocean cruise.

Those of you who have been considering a cruise cannot have missed the debacle that was Carnival Corporation, when the eyes of the world were upon its ship of 4,000 passengers as it drifted through the Gulf of Mexico sans food and facilities. Not the holiday you were thinking of? Had something else in mind? Glamour, luxury, haute cuisine, working sanitation? Well according to Condé Nast Traveler Reader’s Poll, here’s how the top-10 of the large cruise ships rank:

1. Disney Magic, Disney
2. Celebrity Eclipse, Celebrity
3. Disney Dream, Disney
4. Disney Wonder, Disney
5. Celebrity Equinox, Celebrity
6. Celebrity Solstice, Celebrity
7. Diamond Princess, Princess
8. Independence of the Seas, Royal Caribbean
9. Oasis of the Seas, Royal Caribbean
10. Ruby Princess, Princess

For vacationers who still have some trepidation, put down your Dramamine and be of stout heart. Cruise Lines International Association, which represents 25 major companies (including Carnival), has announced that they just adopted a Passenger Bill of Rights that will guarantee the “safety, comfort, and care” of their sea-going guests, and is effective immediately for U.S. passengers who book a cruise in North America on any of the Association’s member cruise lines.

And get this: the bill gives passengers the right to disembark a docked ship if "essential provisions such as food, water, restroom facilities and access to medical care cannot adequately be provided onboard."  Wow, talk about meeting expectations.

It’s been said, ”No one needs a vacation more than the person who just had one.” This year let’s hope that’s not actually true for the nearly 4 million passengers estimated to walk up gangplanks this year.

Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

A Salute to Beer and the U.S. Armed Forces

Memorial Day is coming, and with it the traditional consumer celebrations –parades, outdoor barbeques, food, and, as is also customary, beer. American brewers will be celebrating too. Not only because this is usually a big weekend for them, but also because they’ve seen a significant increase in beer shipments, which have suffered in the recent years.

Middle-income, blue-collar men, 21 to 30 years of age have always been loyal to beer, but that’s one of the groups that have felt the recession perhaps more than others. So in recent times they cut back, but now, happily, they (and others) have come back to beer. Financial predictions are brewers should be more profitable investments in the near-term.

Loyalty has always been a leading-indicator of profitability because it is predictive of positive behavior in the marketplace. So we turned to our 2013 Customer Loyalty Engagement Index to see how well and to what degree various brands are engaging loyal customers. Here’s what we found:

Regular Beer

1.    Coors/Sam Adams: 90%

2.    Heineken/Miller: 88%

3.    Budweiser: 85%

4.    Busch: 83%

5.    Corona: 80%

6.    Michelob: 78%

Light Beer

1.    Coors Light: 89%

2.    Amstel Light: 88%

3.    Sam Adams Light: 87%

4.    Bud Light: 85%

5.    Corona Light: 83%

6.    Busch Light: 82%

7.    Miller Light: 80%

Memorial Day ­– originally called “Decoration Day” – was first celebrated in 1882, with the traditional date being May 30^th until 1968 when Congress moved it to the last Monday in May. The holiday celebrates the men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces and their service to our country.

So whatever your preferred libation, remember to raise your glass to them.

Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Coming Soon To A Platform Near You: Streaming Music from Google And Very Nearly Everyone Else

It was Bill Gates who foretold the success that digital would create as the fastest growing segments of the online entertainment industry. Gates said it, Google listened then Google announced yesterday it will launch a paid streaming music service – All Access music for $9.99 after a 30-day free trial – in direct competition with the likes of Pandora and Spotify. And others from the retail world and the social networking world.
 
The new app is designed to work on smartphones, tablets and browsers, so virtually any mobile platform; will allow users to search for music – search being Google’s sweet-spot, of course, so you’d expect that they’d get that part of the service right. But there’s more! Users will also be able to customize selections from different music and performer genres, and then can stream playlists or listen to curated streams. It’s been reported that Google has already to made licensing agreements with Sony, Universal and Warner Music Groups.

Does this new service move Google closer to – or even ahead of –Apple in this burgeoning category? Apple was the brand that pioneered online music sales via iTunes and it’s been rumored that they are looking to create their own subscription service. So, not only are Spotify, Pandora and Rdio pushing to expand their own audiences, but social networking brands like Facebook and retailers à la Amazon are all competing for streaming music customers.

Is this wild, wild albeit musical, wild west is open to all? Given the growth of more and more mobile platforms, it seems a no-brainer as regards customer engagement, what with entertainment and mobile technology and business so inextricably connected. Perhaps more so for the Apples and the Googles and the Amazons of the group, who are looking for emotional engagement to fill out the brand loyalty equation and attendant profit streams to fit their own mobile product lines.

So can they all succeed? Production and financial wherewithal is never enough to guarantee absolute success. You need an engaging brand within the category from which streaming music will flow. Organic design, optimized search, and same-day delivery does not make one into a leader in streaming music.

You know, like the legendary music that streamed from Orpheus’ golden lyre, with his power to raise spirits of his fellow Argonauts. And for streaming music brands, the ability to not only raise spirits, but brand engagement, loyalty, usage, and – as this is the business of entertainment – profits.

Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Are Video Streams Overflowing, And Will You Pay For It?

With technology and all, and with everything going mobile, it’s hard to keep up with currents in the video streams. Some platforms were created for user-based postings. Others for access to old and new TV, old and new movies, and anything old or new that the networks could license to video streaming services. Brand Keys only started tracking the category back in 2011. There had been, of course, some sites before that, but not enough of them and not different enough to really measure and compare. And certainly not enough mobile/digital platforms for it to matter to anyone but the really, really, really early adopters.

Back then when it came to streaming TV shows and movies, the majors were Netflix and Hulu (which was, BTW, a joint venture of NBC Universal/Comcast, Fox/News Corp, and ABC/Walt Disney, who apparently wanted to dip a proverbial corporate toe into the video stream). And there was Veoh and Amazon, and, of course, you have to count YouTube if factoring in anything that can be video-streamed. When we ask consumers about which platforms they use for “video streaming,” they always name “YouTube,” even though they’re not paying for it – yet (more about that below). Then, of course, there’s iTunes. And before you go crazy, yes, we’re aware there are a bunch of others. Today if you can’t find something to watch, you’re probably not really trying very hard!

According to our most recent Brand Keys survey, which correlates very highly with consumer visitation and usage, current video streaming-site engagement rankings look like this:

1.    Netflix
2.    Amazon
3.    Hulu
4.    YouTube
5.    iTunes
6.    Vimeo
7.    Veoh
8.    Vudu
9.    Blockbuster
10.  Redbox

But the course-changes this category has been making are extraordinarily different from the ones that were expected, reminiscent, for those who were there at the introduction of the internet, of when access and e-mail, and a raft of what-you-currently-get-for-free, was being charged for. So fact #1: the video streaming category is getting crowded. And, fact #2, it’s getting more than a little competitive, as media companies are moving into streaming video looking for their own new revenue streams.

Time Warner’s Instant Archive app, for example, provides access to classic TV and movies for consumers willing to fork over $9.99 a month. AMC and CBS have already launched their own apps. Viacom has promised ones for MTV and Comedy Central very soon. Part of all this relates to who has what inventory, with the media companies looking to connect with consumers directly, rather than rent the rights to other streaming services. It raises the question though, as to whether these new network streaming ventures will put a gabillion dollars of advertising and affiliate fees at risk.

There are rumors about YouTube, #4 on our list, of a plan to let some of their video makers charge a monthly fee for access to their channels. Reports last week were that this might involve dozens of channels. But before you start reviewing your credit card bills, it’s also reported that some will cost less that $2 a month. And while reported to be a subscription for libraries of videos-on-demand and not channels in the traditional TV model, it puts more pressure on the traditional networks to deliver more engaging, cost-effective content.

Now you might think that these eddies in the video stream are causing waves over at Netflix, #1 in our ranking, but, in this case, as the phrase might go, all’s fair in love and war and video streaming. Netflix has had 14 years to become pretty expert at licensing movie and TV content, but their recent moves indicate that they’re looking ahead to become a major player in the content creation arena. With the release of their TV remake of “House of Cards” and their upcoming revival of “Arrested Development,” it positions them not just as licensers of popular TV shows, but as creators/producers of popular content of their own, putting them in direct rivalry with, well, everyone from whom they had previously been licensing.

Netflix’s own, most-recent content creation could be a good launch-spot for their own version of pushing the creative envelope and the promise of what the media world is calling, “premium content.” And also the ability to promise more creative freedom to TV content creators, who perhaps feel manacled by the traditional network system. And as it’s not likely that networks are going to hold on raising licensing costs, content may just be the route for Netflix’s future.

Newton Minow, former-Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, the guy who once called television a “vast wasteland,” also said, “When TV is good nothing is better. When it’s bad, nothing is worse.” Wonder what he’d say now? But based upon the direction of the current video stream, it appears that consumers will have even more opportunities to decide that for themselves.



Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Consumers Buying More Traditional, Emotional Gifts This Mother’s Day

“Tradition” is the watchword this year when it comes to Mother’s Day gifts, according to our annual Brand Keys survey of 5,200 men and women, ages 18-65. On the rational side of things, it turns out more than 9 out of 10 consumers (92%) plan to celebrate Mother’s Day some way, driving total spending to an estimated $18.6 billion. That’s an average spend of $171.00, up five percent over last year, with men, following their traditional pattern of spending more a reported average of $200. Women reported an anticipated spend of $142. 

Two years ago, consumers -- always feeling good about mom but feeling a little better about the economy -- focused Mother’s Day dollars into electronics: smartphones, tablets, and e-readers. This year the consumers’ purchase lists are made up of more traditional, more personal gifts and occasions: cards, brunch or dinner, flowers, and clothing. So it seems fair to say that, like every other consumer purchase, the Mother’s Day decision is part rational and part emotional.

On the rational side of the decision process, no matter how much you love Mom, she really doesn’t need a new phone or tablet every year, no matter how much tech brands wish that was the case. On the emotional side, the leading gift choices tend to be more personal and more emotionally engaging. Which is why this year clothing (+8%) and spa pampering (+10%) outpaced technology gifts.

As to shopping, the consumers will continue to use multiple venues. Discount (45%), Department Stores (36%), and Online (30%) remain generally unchanged fro last year. Catalogs and Specialty Retail were each down 5% again this year (reported at 40% and 10%, respectively).

Mother’s Day is the second-biggest consumer-spending holiday, behind Christmas, Chanukah, and Kwanza, probably because it involves a broader spectrum of relationships, embracing step-moms, female relatives, and friends.  More broad too, linked to changing family dynamics, including divorced, single-parent, and same-sex households. And more universal when you combine all that with the fact it crosses ethnic, cultural, and religious boundaries. And that makes it a real opportunity for retailers.

Emotionally and rationally.

Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

The Most Loyal Fans in Hockey

To be honest, the sentence above was a hard title to actually commit to paper. The National Hockey League hasn’t treated fans all that well – at least not when it comes to managing to get teams out on the ice as regularly as fans might desire.

There was the strike back in ’92. Then the lockout of ’94. Another lockout in 2004-05. Oh, and then there was this season’s 2012-13 lockout. Pity the poor hockey fan. If, as Woody Allen suggested, that 80% of life is just showing up, there hasn’t been much life in the league for NHL fans this season.

The newest lockout began last September after the League and Players’ Association couldn’t agree about a lot of stuff. There’s lots of discussion about what and who caused the lockout. But it shortened the season which was scheduled to begin on October 11th, by about 42%, signifying the cancellation of 510 regular season games and the 2013 NHL Winter Classic. So way short of Mr. Allen’s recommendation. But a lot better than 2004, when the entire season was cancelled.

In spite of the significantly shortened season (or perhaps because of it), there are more loyalty ties this year than in preceding years. According to fans in the teams’ own DMAs, the current 2013 NHL top-5 and bottom-5 team loyalty rankings are as follows (numbers in parentheses indicate last season’s standings):

Top-5

1. Vancouver Canucks and New York Rangers                (#2 and #11)

2. Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks                      (#2 and #6)

3. San Jose Sharks                                                           (#3)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins and St. Louis Blues                      (#6 and #21)

5. Detroit Red Wings and Philadelphia Flyers                   (#1 and #4)

Bottom-5

30. New York Islanders                (#26)

29. Columbus Blue Jackets         (#24)

28. Phoenix Coyotes                    (#18)

27. Winnipeg Jets                         (#19)

26. Tampa Bay Lightening            (#20)

And sure, win-loss ratios may be the only thing when it comes to a playoff championship, but when it comes to winning loyalty it’s not the only thing.

Rule-of-thumb is that win-loss ratios can contribute as much as a 20% bump in a team’s loyalty. But to be fair to the NHL Fans, professional hockey is a little different from the other Major League Sports. Winning and losing’s contribution to loyalty is higher for the NHL (calculated to be around 30%) for a number of reasons. First, the sport moves so much faster than the others, there’s a bit more attention paid to the Pure Entertainment driver wherein win and loss stats reside. Second, the protective equipment makes it hard to instantaneously identify individual players, with the possible exception of the goalie, so what is fan bonding in the other sports is a different kind of bonding in hockey, one based on performance (See First reason above).

So while the final scores tend to contribute more to loyalty for professional hockey, there are three other emotionally-based, predictive factors that must also be taken into account. The four emotional drivers of fan loyalty look like this, with slight accommodations for the sports themselves:

Pure Entertainment:

How well a team does, sure, and as noted, a bit more for hockey. But more importantly than win-loss ratios, how exciting is their play? Or in the case of the NHL, do they play at all? 
Authenticity:

How well they play as a team. Again, in the case of the NHL, if they actually get to play. A really abbreviated season ≠ authenticity. Sorry, it just doesn’t.
Fan Bonding:

Are there players that are particularly respected and admired? And, in the case of the NHL, someone you can recognize behind the helmet and/or didn’t disappear to play in European leagues during the lockout?

History and Tradition:

Are the game and the team part of fans’ and community rituals, institutions and beliefs? Assuming regular lockouts and strikes aren’t part of a fan’s ethos.

Brand Keys hypothesizes that because two of the four loyalty drivers actually involve a team showing up and playing, a smaller degree of loyalty differentiation showed up on this year’s list. That notwithstanding, of the four Major League Sports that Brand Keys tracks in their Sports Fan Loyalty Index, perhaps not surprisingly, the National Hockey League is 4th. The National Football League is currently 1st followed by Major League Baseball, with the National Basketball Association in 3rd place.  

Overall team rankings – no matter which league – because they are based on predictive emotional engagement metrics, correlate with viewership and licensed merchandise sales. And since rankings can be influenced depending upon how loyalty drivers are managed, it’s critical that team marketers act as strategically off the ice as the players do on the ice.

It was Wayne Gretzky who noted that a good hockey player plays where the puck is and a great player plays to where the puck is going to be. Great sports marketers know that same maxim is true about fan loyalty too.

Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

Unplanned Obsolescence: 12 Things That Disappeared. And Next Month, the iPhone.

It was Buckminster Fuller who noted, “To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” And so a bunch of innovators did, although it was not always planned that way.

And, no, not talking about buggy whips, although, yes, they are pretty much obsolete. We’re talking about more recent totems of our civilization including the following:

1.        Dial-up internet

2.      Dialing 4-1-1 for information

3.      Classified ads in newspapers

4.      Hard-copy encyclopedias

5.      PDAs and Address books

6.      Phone books

7.      Rotary dial phones

8.      Floppy discs

9.      Typewriters

10.   Gas station maps

11.    Long distance charges

12.   Film

Oh, and the iPhone. Not all iPhones, but the first-generation, 2007 original model, which will shortly be labeled “vintage” in the United States and “obsolete” everywhere else in the world.

All this will happen next month when Apple changes the phone-that-revolutionized-mobile’s designation, which they do to products 5 years after they’re discontinued. So the iPhone original, which was discontinued in 2008, is due to fade into obsolescence this June. Just in time for an expected launch of Apple’s 7^th generation software, rumored to be more emotionally engaging than the current versions, which would be good news for them.

Apple could certainly use something new. In this year’s Customer Loyalty Engagement Index – after leading the category, well, since they created the category – they slipped to #2, behind Samsung in the Smartphone category (followed by LG, Nokia, Sony, Motorola, HTC, and last, another name that might soon make the list of obsolete items, BlackBerry).

It was Steve Jobs, who noted that, “innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.” So it will be really interesting to see where some innovative thinking from Apple leads this time around.

Stay tuned. Or perhaps sticking with our theme and avoiding the obsolete, we should more properly say, “stay connected” for more updates.

Connect with Robert on LinkedIn.

Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.