Brand Keys has done a lot of political engagement metrics over the years, mostly for Presidential elections and just like the Father of Our Country, real engagement measures cannot tell a lie. At least when it comes to predicting consumer behavior. In this specific case, the election booth, and generally in the marketplace.
Last June, when real estate tycoon, reality TV star, human
brand, and hair icon, Donald Trump, officially launched his campaign for President
of the United States a lot of you thought, ”He’s got to be kidding.” OK, you
weren’t alone. But we conducted an emotional engagement poll of our own and –
as is usually the case with engagement metrics – it gave us a predictive read
on the outcome. An 84% approval rating among Republicans, which is proving out
in the real world.
Anyway, it’s Oscar time again, but we’re not going step into
that particular political arena where you can’t have missed that accusations have
been made that the Oscars are only looking to celebrate the whitest of its
content, creators, and artistes with zero out of 20 nominations going to
non-white actors. The only celebrities-of-color onstage will be award
presenters and that has some folks up in arms.
We can’t offer you any odds on how that’s going to effect
future Academy Award nominations or elections or advertiser and viewer
engagement, but just like last year we've offered up some engagement-based odds on who’ll
win the Academy Awards in the “big” categories – based upon our predictive
engagement assessments. We did really well last year. Please note we provide
these for entertainment value only. If you’re looking to engage in some
moneymaking outcomes, you’re on your own, although it’s generally a bad idea to
bet against emotional engagement in any category. Anyway, here’s this year’s engagement
odds:
BEST PICTURE
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6/1
|
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200/1
|
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200/1
|
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150/1
|
|
100/1
|
|
1/2
|
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100/1
|
|
5/2
|
|
80/1
|
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100/1
|
|
1/66
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25/1
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20/1
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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
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40/1
|
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1/33
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66/1
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66/1
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1/4
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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
|
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25/1
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16/1
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50/1
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5/2
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1/3
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ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
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Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hateful Eight
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5/1
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Rooney Mara, Carol
|
5/1
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Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
|
100/1
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Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
|
4/9
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Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
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3/1
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DIRECTING
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22/1
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7/1
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1/10
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120/1
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20/1
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The 2016 Academy Awards will air Sunday, February 28, 2016
on ABC, those were the emotional engagement odds for each of the key categories,
and we wish all the nominees and viewers all the best.
For the advertisers who paid a reported $1.8 – 2.2 million per thirty-second commercial, we calculate the odds of advertising engagement success to be about 8 to 1 given past performance statistics and the current list of sponsors, so it might be worth remembering the words of Walt Disney, who noted, “We don’t make movies to make money, we make money to make movies.”
Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.
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